A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
